Alcun Atirutan BBS

Sending territorial defence forces to the front indicates two things:
- Not enough ukrainian soldiers on the front, so likely high losses.
- The western ukrainian population that could support the pointless war because it didn't affect them much, now has a good reason to get pissed about it.

@Bro-Drillard The russians are expending 600,000 artillery shells a day. They are literally smashing them down with artillery, then walking over the corpses to take the position

@AlbinoMutant @Bro-Drillard That's the theory, but in practice there was basically zero position taking in recent days. The 2nd Phase had some minor tactical successes early on (finally moved south of Izyum, took Yampol (station)) and stalled completely now.

@Bro-Drillard @AlbinoMutant Okay, I may be overstepping my expertise opining on this, but here's a thing: Russians are outnumbered and will remain outnumbered for the foreseeable future unless something changes. And, it will remain the case regardless of the mobilization attempts. Here's why I think so.

In a modern war, about 100 people have to saw and harvest crops, sew uniforms, load ammunition, drive trains, engineer weapons, and so on, in order for 1 soldier to fight. In 1970s it was about 30 to 1 (for a society with industrialized agriculture like USSR), based on Soviet standard of "1 million population sustains 1 division at the front or about 30,000". A total war may allow to exceed this ratio for a year or two, at the cost of the collapse of the country thereafter.

But the Kiev regime does not need to observe this ratio at all. They don't need people to tilt the fields, assemble missiles, etc., because all of that will be done by Americans (400 million) and Europeans (500 million). All they have to do is 1. logistics and 2. shoot at Russians.

So, Russia will not be able to send more than 1.4 million to fight, and that with a total mobilization. But Ukraine can send way more. Maybe 5 million. Maybe 8 million.

Currently, Ukraine and Russia is at a stalemate, because Russia has a complete superiority in heavy arms, such as aviation, missiles, and artillery. Ukraine has way more troops, but they are stuck across the country, or pinned down and cannot maneuver. They cannot mount an overwhelming zerg rush. But Russians cannot advance either against such odds. And I don't see them just grinding the odds down. The "terbats" sent to the front is just the natural flow of the canon fodder of which Ukraine has a greater supply.

@Bro-Drillard @zaitcev @AlbinoMutant Sending a bunch of civilians into a meat grinder is not a viable strategy idc if theres a billion ukes

@zaitcev @Bro-Drillard @AlbinoMutant There's a defender's advantage as well. All of these combined make aggressive wars of territorial conquest less likely, and hopefully obsolete. China might have enough people to overcome that at least in the short term, but they're quickly converging on their own population crash because of the bill for Mao's incompetence coming due.

@Bro-Drillard @kazriko @zaitcev @AlbinoMutant They were letting cars and truck cut through their tank files

@Bro-Drillard @zaitcev @AlbinoMutant From what I understand, in certain parts of the country they have already started with the scorched earth plan, especially in areas where they were retreating in the north, and more recently around Kharkiv. They only have so many members of the Wagner Group to go around though to enact that plan.